A shot heard across the world

Discussion in 'Market Commentary' started by SimonDenham, Jun 17, 2016.

This is the TIMETOTRADE forum. Use the TIMETOTRADE Trigger Trading Technology™ to execute your trades when your Price, Candlestick, Trend Line and Technical Analysis chart conditions are met - no coding required. Trade directly in the world’s global markets. Backtest your Trading Strategies. Calculate your UK HMRC Capital Gains Tax liabilities. Manage your Investment Club. Create a FREE account today.

  1. SimonDenham

    SimonDenham Simon Denham CEO Mercor Index Staff Member

    Markets seem to have managed one of their ‘reversal’ days having looked in deep doo doo for most of yesterday’s session there was a sudden sea change in sentiment in the last hour of European trading. The change turned a near 200 point fall in the Dax into merely a 50 point drop which was itself wiped out in after-hours futures trading.

    The FTSE was an almost copycat performance and both indices are looking to open around 0.5% to the good this morning.

    Brexit has been put on the back burner for a day or so as the terrible events in Yorkshire unfold. Dealers will always try to interpret disasters and tragedy in market terms and there is a sense that the awful events in Birstall may pull the UK away from taking a step into the dark.

    It may not be an exaggeration to say that this may be the turning point in the debate.

    Clients are still very much in two minds about the situation with longs and shorts almost exactly matching each other out but if the markets continue to move higher in the fashion of the last 12 hours then we can expect that the shorts will come under the kind of pressure that has been hurting the longs.

    Economic Data

    Yesterday saw some strange numbers out of the gate with UK retail sales moving up 6% which must have come as a surprise to many as the warnings of doom over the last few months had caused analysts to forecast a slowdown.

    US jobless claims were a bit higher than forecast in line with the weak NFP number earlier in the month) and CPI data was also a bit softer than forecast.

    Today we have absolutely zilch out of Europe and the UK with the focus being on the Housing stats out of the US at 13.30 this afternoon.

    Markets expect starts to be a smidge weaker with permits being just as minimally stronger.



    The FTSE ended yesterday marginally lower (having looked very weak just an hour before the close) and this morning we are currently over a percent to the good as investors start to pick up damaged stocks.

    All eyes will remain on the Brexit campaign (which is suspended again today) and we can imagine that there might be some worries floating around as we close in on the 23d next week.

    Support is at 5940/50 then 5900/10 and 5815/25

    Resistance is at 6110/20 then 6220/30 and 6340/50


    The Dax is over 250 points above the lows of yesterday as I write and the shorts are now the ones under pressure. Dealers seem to be sniffing blood and funds which had set up short protection or bear option strategies will now be worried about missing out on a buying opportunity.

    Support is at 9605/15, 9510/20, 9475/85 and 9380/90

    Resistance is at 9710/20, 9800/10 then 9880/90 and 10280/90


    As with the European markets the Dow is picking up lost ground this morning (actually it gained most of it last night). The problem for the US market is that it is already quite fully valued and if the employment numbers coming through are real indicators of economic weakening then we may struggle to regain the highs.

    Support is at 17670/80, 17600/10 then 17520/30
    Resistance is at 17815/25, 17995/05, 18050/60, 18215/25

    FX markets


    The Euro has responded with other the equity markets to the more hopeful view of the Brexit vote and our clients are picking up light positions. The problem for the Euro is that 1.100 to 1.1200 (or thereabouts) has been the ‘steady state’ for over a year now and there seems little reason to suppose that this is going to change now.

    Support is at 1.1180/90 and 1.1110/20 then 1.1050/60
    Resistance is 1.1275/85, 1.1370/80, 1.1460/70, 1.1590/00 then 1.1720/30


    As mentioned the other day the pound seems uncomfortable down below 1.4100 and the last two sessions have rather borne this out. But the rebound trigger with Cable, as with other markets, was the shooting of Ms Cox. The cross is now back up at 1.4270 as I write, still well down on last week naturally as there is still worry that the vote will go for exit.

    Support is at 1.4130/40, 1.4050/60 and 1.4000/10

    Resistance at 1.4280/90, 1.4320/30 and 1.4380/90


    As equity markets looked to be going into freefall gold spiked higher to $1315 before reversing the entire move and actually closing lower. Today things are a bit more stable but longs are still confident of more to come. With bond yields still at pretty much zero the temptation to ‘put a bit’ into the yellow metal is probably holding us up.

    Support is at 1270/75, 1252/54, 1240/42 1228/30 1216/18, 1204/06

    Resistance is 1286/88 1294/96 and 1303/05


    August Bent is now at 47.75 up from the lows of yesterday as bulls try to stem the selling pressure.

    As mentioned in previous comments the levels above 50 bucks are tentative at best as there is still a global glut of the black stuff and, more importantly, once we get much above here the economics of production begin to move towards the higher cost producers.

    Support is at 47.40/50, 46.60/70 and 45.35/45,
    Resistance is at 50.50/60, 51.70/80 and 52.05/15

    Apply for a trading account today and get the superb Trigger Trading™, Taxation and Investment Club Pro Package for FREE. Get your trading advantage.

Share This Page

Open a FREE TIMETOTRADE account today:
Execute your Trigger Trading™ strategies automatically in the world’s global markets. Apply Now to try our superb platform and get your trading advantage.
170+ Technical Analysis and Candlestick Pattern Indicators - learn more
Back Test Trading Strategies - learn more
Manage your Portfolio and calculate UK HMRC Capital Gains liabilities and SA 108 CGT Return - learn more
Manage your Investment Club and generate UK HMRC Investment Club Tax Return Form 185 - learn more